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Official ALCS Predictions Thread
#46

I’m one of those Americans who still heralds baseball as that colorful thread tightly woven into the fabric of our culture, much like many Canadians feel about hockey. As a citizen of Cincinnati and a lifelong fan of the Reds (the very first Major League team - est. 1876), I am consumed by the game and its traditions. Despite the fact that Cincy is a NL town and that our ‘hatred’ is channeled towards divisional rivals (primarily the Cubs), there is always that lingering distaste for the NY Yankees (aka “The Evil Empire”) that baseball fans here and everywhere fall back on come October when our underachieving hometeams hang their spikes up for the winter. It’s only natural that ‘have-nots’ will cultivate a dislike for the ‘haves’ over time.

However, I personally do not share this hatred; in fact, I appreciate the Yanks for what they are and the role they play in this sport - a team wholly committed to winning, who looms like a dark cloud over every other team’s World Championship aspirations. Thus, every season’s playoffs have the potential for an epic story where David must slay Goliath, where the common man must subvert the corporate machine, where spirit must thwart legacy, where ‘will’ must triumph over birthright. The truth of the matter is that unlimited finances cannot guarantee success, as exhibited last season when the Florida Marlins (2003 payroll: $48,750,000) vanquished the mighty Yankees (2003 payroll: $152,749,814) in six games. Sure, the burgeoning NYY bankroll usually ensures a playoff appearance, but the fact remains that two other very capable AL teams get a fair shot at the Yanks every postseason, and these teams are always stocked with talent that compares much more favorably than the disparity in payrolls would suggest. Solid pitching, good defense, and timely hitting are what wins championships, and last time I checked, the Twins and Red Sox have shown the capacity do execute these three elements of winning baseball versus every AL foe.

So whenever I hear fans (especially BoSox fans) bitch and moan about payroll, and whine about the ‘outrageousness’ of Yankee fans taking pride in their team and talking smack to rival fans, I just laugh and shake my head. Here is a franchise (Boston) who spends $127,298,500 on its own roster of all-stars, wins the regular-season series versus the Yankees 11-8, yet fails to show up to the ALCS as usual. Realize that while all you Chowderheads are cryin’ in your clams, MY team, who just so happens to have the second-richest owner in baseball and 124th richest American in terms of personal wealth (1.8 billion), spent only $46,615,250 on the Reds 2004 player payroll. His name is Carl Lindner, Jr. (Chiquita, Great American Insurance Inc.), and he obviously shows no commitment to putting a decent team on the field for fans who are dying to fiscally support a winner.

This is why I respect Geroge Steinbrenner and the Yankees; he will spare no cost to improve his team, and the fans are the ones who gladly pay the bills and reap the glory. And enough with this nonsense about lack of class - the Yankees are perennially a team of consummate professionals who play the game how it is meant to be played. Despite what happens from April through September, they usually come ready to play in October, and the world watches as the stigma worms deep into the heads of the Sox, coaxing them to roll over like dogs. This phenomenon isn’t borne from ballooning player salaries; it is what emerges from one franchise's tradition of winning, and its commitment to uphold that tradition. After all, the combined worth of the BoSox ownership group exceeds that of George Steinbrenner.

So tell me, on whom does the onus of building a winner truly lie?
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#47

Do you think that Steinbrenner loses money with a payroll of $184,193,950? Of course he doesn't. Between TV and merch, he's still making a crapload of money off of the Yanks.

I love fans who bitch and moan that the owners of "their team" don't show a commitment to winning because they - gasp - actually want to make a profit from their investment rather than throw away millions of their own money. Reds fans are "dying" to fiscally support a winner, are they? So, if Lindner announced that ticket prices were going to increase 400% so that they could afford a $186MM payroll, am I to believe that Reds fans would be fine with that? Yeah, whatever.

The simple fact of the matter is that the Yankees have a non-baseball factor (i.e. being located in New York) that greatly enhances their chances of winning. Good on Steinbrenner for taking advantage of that factor (as he should), but don't act like the Yankees are on a level playing field as everyone else. It is one thing to build a winner through great scouting, great drafting, and great trades, and quite another thing to build a winner by outspending everyone else by 30%. The odds are heavily stacked in the Yankees' favour, which is why cheering for the Yankees is like cheering for the house in blackjack.
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#48

the most hilarious thing i heard yesterday was when tim McCarver said that the Yankees have an abundance of home grown talent..(posada,williams, jeter, rivera) thats 4 of the 25 players on the roster. That fox crew is bad
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#49

cferneyh Wrote:Reds fans are "dying" to fiscally support a winner, are they? So, if Lindner announced that ticket prices were going to increase 400% so that they could afford a $186MM payroll, am I to believe that Reds fans would be fine with that? Yeah, whatever.

That's a rediculous analogy. Of course not. But Reds fans certainly will come out to the ballpark to support a winner, and I guarantee that bumping payroll from $46M to the $60-65M range would do enough to a) field a reasonably competitive team, and b) to keep fans filling the seats through season's end. By the way, don't pretend to know the baseball climate here in my city - there isn't a more zealous baseball fan-base per capita than Cincinnati, except maybe St. Louis, who have the best baseball fans anywhere.

Don't believe me?

Chew on this: In early June of this season, when the Reds were actually in first place in the NL Central, a three-game homestand drew an attendance of 105,160 to watch the freaking Montreal Expos - that's an average of 35,053 per game, compared to the 2004 home season average of 28,237! That shows you how much attendance dropped off in the second half of the season when the Cardinals lead stretched to double-digits. When a season wears on and the product becomes visibly horrific, real baseball fans stop going to ballgames, because they refuse to be swindled and insulted.

Or this: In July, when the Reds trailed the Cardinals in the NL Central by only 6.0 games (in other words, when we still had a fighting chance) a four-game homestand with those Carinals drew 138,879 in paid attendance (an average of 34,720 per game). In two subsequent homestands with the Cards, when the Reds trailed by 13.5 games or more (and it was apparent that this team was not going to compete and that Uncle Carl wasn't going to add talent / salary), the paid attendance totaled 140,349 for six games (an average of 23,392 per game).

Obviously, Reds fans will plant their asses in ballpark seats as long as there's a decent product on the field, and if Carl would bother to invest a little more in that product, his returns would easily allow the franchise to remain profitable. There simply is no excuse; Lindner is out of touch with the great fans in this city, and we aren't stupid. He is destroying the proud tradition of Cincinnati Reds baseball.

cferneyh Wrote:The simple fact of the matter is that the Yankees have a non-baseball factor (i.e. being located in New York) that greatly enhances their chances of winning. Good on Steinbrenner for taking advantage of that factor (as he should), but don't act like the Yankees are on a level playing field as everyone else. It is one thing to build a winner through great scouting, great drafting, and great trades, and quite another thing to build a winner by outspending everyone else by 30%.

So then why don't the NEW YORK METS experience the same success and operate on the same budget as the Yankees do? The fact is that Steinbrenner's agressive spending never left Yankee fans feeling slighted, which in turn padded revenues, which he reinvests religiously back into the team. In other words, he built a great product with a great business plan, and has been reaping the rewards ever since. That's called free enterprise, and that is what America is all about - economic freedom on the open market. Am I supposed to hate Steinbrenner and his fine product and cry 'foul' because he is a savvy entrepreneur? Do I need to remind you that the US is a capitalist society, not a socialist one?

I never said the Yankees are on a level playing field, but the lowly Marlins didn't seem to find things slanted against them in 2003, did they? Sometimes, a team refuses to be psyched out by the Yankee might, and just won't allow them to be their 'Daddy'. Just wait till the World Series - you'll see.
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#50

The Horrible Esthete Wrote:So then why don't the NEW YORK METS experience the same success and operate on the same budget as the Yankees do? The fact is that Steinbrenner's agressive spending never left Yankee fans feeling slighted, which in turn padded revenues, which he reinvests religiously back into the team. In other words, he built a great product with a great business plan, and has been reaping the rewards ever since. That's called free enterprise, and that is what America is all about - economic freedom on the open market. Am I supposed to hate Steinbrenner and his fine product and cry 'foul' because he is a savvy entrepreneur? Do I need to remind you that the US is a capitalist society, not a socialist one?

I never said the Yankees are on a level playing field, but the lowly Marlins didn't seem to find things slanted against them in 2003, did they? Sometimes, a team refuses to be psyched out by the Yankee might, and just won't allow them to be their 'Daddy'. Just wait till the World Series - you'll see.

Sigh. Love how you pull out ONE example. Yeah, the Mets are badly mismanaged. Duh. But let's look at the top twelve in payroll as of opening day:

1 New York Yankees $184,193,950
2 Boston Red Sox $127,298,500
3 Anaheim Angels $100,534,667
4 New York Mets $96,660,970
5 Philadelphia Phillies $93,219,167
6 Los Angeles Dodgers $92,902,001
7 Chicago Cubs $90,560,000
8 Atlanta Braves $90,182,500
9 St. Louis Cardinals $83,228,333
10 San Francisco Giants $82,019,166
11 Seattle Mariners $81,515,834
12 Houston Astros $75,397,000

So what's the common theme here? Well, other than the Mets and Mariners, every team on that list either made the playoffs or was fighting to make the playoffs until the last couple of weeks of the regular season. That's 10/12. That's 83%. Sure, every once in awhile you'll find an exception to the rule (the Marlins, the Twins), but it is pretty freaking clear that in THE VAST MAJORITY OF CASES, higher payroll = more chance for success.

By the way, Steinbrenner is hardly a "savvy entrepreneur" as you like to call him. He was born into money (his dad was a Great Lakes shipping tycoon). In my books, someone who spends daddy's money on pro sports teams hardly qualifies as an entrepreneur. And it isn't all that long ago that Yankee fans wanted him to sell the team because of the perceived damage he was doing in the 80s and early 90s. He's lucky, and he's had a good run. He's not some self made genius that bought the Yankees and took 'em from the basement to the penthouse. I can't help but notice that in the 80s, when the difference between highest payroll and lowest payroll was nowhere near as outrageous as it is today, he wasn't able to do anything right with the Yankees - his decisions to sign guys like Danny Tartabull to outrageous sums of money backfired badly. But over the past nine years, when the difference between the poor teams and the rich teams has widened considerably, he's been successful. Gee, I wonder why that is.

Lastly, let's not forget that Steinbrenner is both a criminal (he was found guilty for making illegal campaign contributions to Richard Nixon) and a thug (he admitted to a $40,000 payment to gambler Howie Spira for damaging information about Dave Winfield). Yeah, what a hero! How can I not like a guy with a track record like that?
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#51

BACK TO THE BIG APPLE TONIGHT! WHOOOOOOOO!
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#52

Do you ever contribute anything meaningful to this forum?

-Jenna
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#53

what was so meaningful about that comment Ms. Bird?
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#54

This series, along with a lack of hockey, actually makes baseball interesting. Cripes, I actually listened to most of the game on the radio tonight. 2 weeks ago you couldn't pay me to even watch the sport now I'm listening to it. Games 4 and 5 were epic. To bad the "other" series is getting zero attention cause it looks like a dandy as well. Go Sox!! That felt real weird to type.
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#55

Watching the $184 million Evil Empire potentially pull off the greatest choke in the history of baseball is definitely numbing the no-NHL pain for me.
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#56

PLEASE BOSTON PLEASE WIN GAME 7
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#57

would love to be in beantown tomorrow night....she`s about to explode!

7/17/95-Craven
11/18/96-Saskatoon
7/21/97-Saskatoon
9/16/00-Winnipeg
11/24/00-Red Deer
07/14/02-Camrose
9/26/02-Edmonton
9/27/02-Edmonton
8/1/03-Kelowna
6/22/04-Edmonton
11/17/04-Edmonton
11/20/04-Saskatoon
10/28/06-Calgary
1/19/07-Regina
7/18/07-Saskatoon
6/22/08-Calgary
8/4/09-Saskatoon
9/14/09-Edmonton
9/19/09-Banff
7/14/11-Edmonton
1/23/13-Edmonton
7/6/13-Saskatoon
10/10/15-Houston
7/28/16-Edmonton
7/30/16-Edmonton
8/01/16-Calgary
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#58

And the Astros are holding Clemens back for either game 7 of the NLCS or (dare we dream?) game 1 of the WS at Fenway...

If you're even a casual sports fan, let alone a baseball fan (hardcore or otherwise), tonight's game is the definition of must-see TV...

(memo to self: must tape West Wing...:mrgreen: )

GO SOX GO!!!

M.
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#59

Billybillybillybilly. Billybilly billy billy. Don't let me down.

http://www.mattsmusicpage.com/111/sounds/billyb.htm
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#60

Just a reminder: McCarver stinks.

7. If the Yankees are down by two runs in the ninth inning, and somebody walks -- like Matsui did in Game 6 -- apparently it's as good as a home run. That's how Tim McCarver explained it last night. I'm not sure if just the Yankees are immune to double plays, or if it's everyone in the league. But it's an interesting development.

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:lol:
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