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I think the industry will only solve their filesharing issues when they learn to embrace rather than fight the technology. They'll either get left behind or find a way to profit from the new method people access music. I'm betting on the latter.
That's a great point about the Beatles, and those Elvis #1 compilations sold millions, all with tracks that have not only been available online, but also offline for more than thirty years.
I think if the big 3 (or 4, or whatever it is these days) set up iTunes style online-depots featuring their artists, packaged the radio hits with a live tune and another cut off the album, and sold it for $5.99 a shot, they'd make a killing. Could even create a subscriber system like premium cable.
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There are tons of business models that would work online, but the execs are so clueless they'll likely never see the light of day. I remember reading an interview with Steve Jobs about when he was negotiating with the record companies for iTunes, and he said that some of the people he was negotiating with didn't even have email addresses, let alone use a computer.
It is amazing to me how much time and effort they are putting into stopping the 10% of customers who likely would never pay for music, rather than focusing on the majority of people who would gladly pay for music they like. It's like Bell ExpressVu not putting out Bell ExpressVu because a certain segment of the market uses pirated satellite signals. Ummm, HELLO!
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I tend to agree with Stephen's assesment. The music industry's filesharing problems will only get worse as the financial power of baby boomers starts to fade. One study I saw in WSJ noted that baby boomers are 3 times more likely to buy albums and are not as computer-proficient as their younger counterparts. The 16-39 age bracket are more likely to use filesharing to find the music they want and pay as little as they can get away with.
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VLH, that leads to another assessment of the RS top earners list.
Is the predominance of Boomer music a true reflection of their market power, or is the trend you cite also at work?
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I think the power of Boomer music is derived from a mix of factors. One is the back catalogue these artists have and their ability to command better deals from record companies. You also have to look at the influence of Boomer music has on younger generations and the relentless touring these stars do. Case in point: my gf went to an Elton John show recently with some girl friends and went out and bought some of his records afterwards because she enjoyed his music. She's 23, I bet that alot of the Boomer music generation's ability to move cd's off shelves stems from this and the number of commercial radio stations that heavily play their stuff. I think the ability of Baby Boomer musicians to make money from their back catalogue will slowly decline, less so than the marketability and selling power of their newer albums. The market will become more fragmented and the record companies will end up chasing the same buck as their next hyped act makes a big splash and then fades from sight unless they smarten up and jump on the filesharing bandwagon and allow their acts to grow organically. Look at the Backstreet Boys; 7 years ago they were on top of the world and now they are trying a "comeback tour". It's not a bad thing in my mind that they are being relegated to has-beens, but alot of good bands have suffered the same fate as the record companies dump them as soon as they lose that "Hot Thing" label.
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One comment posted on that blog entry pointed out that the record companies have moved from going after artists with staying power, and investing in their development, to going after artists with flashy, momentary appeal who fade from the scene after making a big splash.
These artists never gain the huge, loyal followings (like the Dead or Dylan) that let them gain new fans 20 years on down the road. Let's not forget how many young fans these acts still earn; consider Alex Ross's New Yorker piece on Dylan, which pointed out that most of his concert audience seemed to be under 25.
Even the Beatles, who split up, remain high earners because of the quality of their work. Sure, it can sound pretty dated, but it has staying power.
The Boomers had the Monkees, too, but music now is much more temporary. Will anyone really listen to Ashlee Simpson in ten years? How about ten weeks?
Is the issue really the Boomer generation's buying power, or the fact that in the late 60s, pop culture broke free of the money men because the kids were beyond their ken? With the money men back in control, we're bombarded with throwaway, formulaic pop hits. Tin Pan Alley is back.
Is it demographics or quality at work here?
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That was the point I don't think I made clear enough in my previous post. The record companies are going to focus on their short term benefit and I think they are going to regret focusing on finding the next Beyonce, Maroon 5 or Hillary Duff because they aregoing to have to invest more into hyping their new finds and find that they dont have any staying power. Demographics and quality are going to go hand in hand, I think, as the 16-39 age generation get older. Some of this generation will continue to listen to mass marketed crap(a Generation X version of Bryan Adams for example) because they treat music as background noise to listen to. A fair percentage of this generation will grow out of the popular music fads and start looking for the sound that suits their personalities and I think they'll find artists who put out good quality work and are able to make a living like they should, from getting a higher percentage of receipts from their discs instead of having to tour endlessly and watch their record company get high on the hog from their albums.
