[VioletlightHeron]

Ok, Skippy, I find your theory about Colonel Oliver a little perplexing, seeing how a review from <!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.pluggedinonline.com/movies/movies/a0002029.cfm">http://www.pluggedinonline.com/movies/m ... 002029.cfm</a><!-- m --> of the film says this about his character:

Col. Oliver, a Canadian representing the United Nations in Rwanda, does everything he can to help Paul. And he bitterly condemns those who he believes are ignoring Rwanda's crisis because its citizens are "dirt." As he puts it to Paul, the Western world despises you because "you're black. You're not even a n-gger, you're an African." Later, when Paul realizes Oliver is right, and that there will be no intervening military force sent to their aid, he agonizes over how little he seems to be worth to his white friends. In doing so he teaches us all a lesson we dare not forget. "They told me I was one of them ... and I swallowed it," he laments.

Granted, I haven't seen the film for myself and will do so but I find it curious that you hate the way Oliver was portrayed because he was drunk and bitter about the unwillingness of the international community to help?

[Stephen Dame]

Well, the hell with this story... everything just changed. Seems like a boneheaded game of chicken by Harper and co. These new Senators might be waiting a while for a Parliament to sit in...

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2005/03/24/budget-kyoto050324.html">http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national ... 50324.html</a><!-- m -->

[cferneyh]

Well, the hell with this story... everything just changed. Seems like a boneheaded game of chicken by Harper and co. These new Senators might be waiting a while for a Parliament to sit in...

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2005/03/24/budget-kyoto050324.html">http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national ... 50324.html</a><!-- m -->

It's up to Prime Minister Paul Martin to decide if the defeat would trigger an election, Harper said.

Ugh. Please, no. :rambo:

[Stephen Dame]

Well, the hell with this story... everything just changed. Seems like a boneheaded game of chicken by Harper and co. These new Senators might be waiting a while for a Parliament to sit in...

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2005/03/24/budget-kyoto050324.html">http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national ... 50324.html</a><!-- m -->

It's up to Prime Minister Paul Martin to decide if the defeat would trigger an election, Harper said.

Ugh. Please, no. :rambo:

Right. Harper's holding the gun, but Paul gets to say "pull!" And I think your "ugh" is an accurate telling of the nations mood for another election.

Admittedly, as somebody who hopes Harper never sees the inside of 24 Sussex, I don't think he's got a chance to win an election on this, especially if he forces one.... especially after he already said he'd support the budget.

I can't see the calculation. Gomery is hot in Quebec right now, so another Bloc sweep is a lock. The West is still his, but how forcing an election and opposing Kyoto (which is popular in Ontario/Quebec and lower mainland BC) is going to help him win seats where he really needs them (Ontario/Quebec and lower mainland BC) is beyond me.

The polls don't show he can win, and being a smart politician (Or at least he was...) Harper has to know that if he loses again, it's Joe Clark time for him. I can only assume that this is a ploy, a "look how much influence we Conservatives have now that we know our policies" or a move based on a strong belief in the National Post editorial board which tells him he can win on same sex marriage alone.

I assume the only push factor could be that a spring/summer election, so soon after the last one, would see many casual voters (largely Liberal in Canada) skip the polls while newly united and jazzed Conservatives flood them ala the recent US Republican strategy which saw amazing direct-mailing and "get out the vote" success. Same sex is also popular among the young (who vote like its a trip to the dentist... dude) and unpopular among the old (who vote like its a trip to the early-bird special at The Keg... deary).

I'm somewhat enthused, because another loss by Harper could mean the end to republican conservatism in Canada, and a re-emergence of Progressive Conservatives under somebody like Stronach, MacKay or Lord. However, I'm somewhat hesitant because I know Paul Martin only won the last one because Harper, and more specifically his conserva-nazi members, screwed up.

Is an election a risk? Yep. But with no stand-out, strong leader in the field, anything could happen. Maybe Stephen's in a gambling mood.

It's gunna be fun to watch.

[skippy the wonder dog]

I think Harper will be a fool to force an election.

He's buoyed by the party's success at putting it's Reform-era social conservatism aside during the convention. That's critical to gaining seats in Ontario, so it's a big plus.

But he hasn't noticed that some of the key policy planks they did adopt don't mesh well with public opinion. Notably, his eagerness to reopen the missile defence issue is likely to hurt him, based on recent polling.

That's a risky area for the Liberals to fight him because he can drag out the old "anti-Americanism" text.

Kyoto may also be a risky issue to take to the polls. I'm not aware of any polling on support for Kyoto, but the results of the last election don't actually show the Liberals bleeding support to the right. They bled support to the left; the NDP made gains at their expense. And I don't hear any general rumblings to suggest things have changed.

Harper could find himself facing a serious backlash on this one.

I don't think it will come to that, though. Somebody is going to blink. And for the next four years, we'll hear threats like these every two weeks.

[j-monster]

Probably more like the next two years, at most. Minority governments have a history of not lasting very long... unless I'm mistaken, the longest one in Canada lasted about two and a half years.

As someone who doesn't find Harper and the Conservatives nearly as scary as some of you, I still have to agree that an election now is a potential disaster for the Conservatives. I think Harper just wants to flex some political muscle and see if he can get Martin and the Liberals to make some changes to the bill. It could get very interesting indeed, because the Liberals may want to encourage forcing an election, because they could blame the Conservatives for forcing the election, and they could capitalize if there is enough voter discontent, which is entirely possible. We'll see...

[fingernailsonhull]

Glad to see that there are others around here that do not believe that a Conservative government would be the worst thing to happen to Canada since Pierre Trudeau. However, forcing an election now is a BAD idea. If it appears that the Conservatives are responsible for a snap election (and you know Martin will say they are) they will gain absolutely no support in central Canada.

[VioletlightHeron]

Unless Harper wants the Liberals to be more dependent on the Bloc and the NDP for keeping them in office and have a tail wagging the dog situation that gets so bad that the voters in Ontario and Quebec finally abandon all three parties in disgust, then I would agree that having a snap election right now would be Harper's worse short term move for the Conservative party and a bad long term move for the stability of Canadian government and national unity.

[Stephen Dame]

Conservative party and a bad long term move for the stability of Canadian government and national unity.

Funny how those four terms always go together like hot chocolate and marshmallows.

With that said, I'm happy Mulroney is doing better now... the more I see of Harper, the more I like Brian.

[VioletlightHeron]

Conservative party and a bad long term move for the stability of Canadian government and national unity.

Funny how those four terms always go together like hot chocolate and marshmallows.

With that said, I'm happy Mulroney is doing better now... the more I see of Harper, the more I like Brian.[/i]

Hehe, mind you I don't agree with any of the Liberal Party agenda but I'm theorizing that Harper is operating under the assumption he'll be able to steal some seats from the Liberals in Ontario by trying to point out the enourmous economic costs of the Kyoto treaty that the developing countries dont have to deal with and how that has the potential to weaken Canadian and US economies.
Kyoto in the abstract sounds great, but as it is negotiated does not take into account the demand for energy the developing nations are going to need to grow their economy and the shoddy enviromental equipment that these nations have. On top of that, what is the realistic likelihood that India, China and the rest of the developing nations are going to be willing to re-negotiate Kyoto as their share of pollutants increases when Kyoto gives them a leg up economically in manufacturing over Western countries?
Beyond the inherent problems in Kyoto that I don't think Harper is going to be able to sell to Ontario voters, I think a snap election would be worse for the long term survival of the Conservative Party because unless things drastically change or the Conservatives come up with a eye opening campaign, the Liberals will survive by the skin of their teeth and be forced to partner with the NDP and the Bloc. This I think is bad for the long term cohesion of Canadian unity because the Bloc is interested in one thing only and the NDP has a dislike towards corporations and business in general. If Martin is forced to turn to the Bloc and the NDP for survival, he'll be forced to make major concessions with regards to Quebec secession for the Bloc and corporate governance and government regulations for the NDP. Ultimately I think this will end in disaster because the tail will start to wag the dog and the government will most likely fall, yet the NDP and the Bloc will be emboldened in their demands and the Conservatives, if they gain office at a later date, will be forced to either wage a war of political attrition with the Bloc and the NDP or accept their demands and see a steady slow drift into disunity. Thoughts?