[j-monster]

prz, doesn't Ontario have a provincial election for 2007? That's likely to delay a federal election.

You are right and I was thinking about that too. So then that may give all the reason to push with a Spring 2007 vote? Do you really see the Libs waiting till 08? If they do wait ill the first chance in 08 the election will not come till the spring of 08.

At the same time, what if the conservatives fall and then the Liberals and NDP attempt to form a coalition government. That could happen too.

Perhaps I'm wrong... but isn't Quebec due for a provincial election in 2007 as well? Something else to consider. And something interesting to look at as well... how much REAL strength will the separatist movement have by then?

Skippy... your analysis of Harper as a failure is interesting, but flawed, in my opinion. You are right when you say:

He's had some success, in that he has managed to pull the conservatives together, present a united front, moderate his party's policies and become prime minister. To give Harper the credit he deserves, he was dealt a shitty hand by the legacy of Reform and still did a good job.

However, I think it is unfair to pin the blame on Harper for "only" winning a slim majority, despite the almost perfect campaign by the CPC and the absolutely disastrous campaign by the Liberals. I think many voters who consider themselves to be left-wing, or progressive, or whatever label they want to choose, still had reservations about Harper, and were looking for any excuse to not support him. And I think many of them ultimately bought into Martin's accusations that the Tories would ban abortions when in power (a ridiculous charge, in my opinion), and also bought into Martin's idea that only a Liberal vote could stop a Tory majority or at least reduce the size of the minority. Ultimately they chose the devil they knew. When people have that kind of mindset, it's hard to break them out of that. You need to actually have time in power to prove that you're not scary. Now that the Tories will form the government, they will get the chance to accomplish this. If they don't mess it up (and I'm confident they won't), then they can point to an actual record, and people can see they accomplished things for the good of the country, and didn't do anything scary.

Am I generalizing? To some extent I suppose I am, and I'm sure there are other reasons people voted Liberal (i.e. favoured the local candidate, etc.). Yet my reasoning above is the best that I can think of right now that helps me understand the behaviour of most of the people who voted Liberal.

And now, a question for you, skippy. How do you judge Jack Layton's performance in this election? He did increase the NDP's popular vote and the number of seats, yet he fell short of the goal the party had of holding the balance of power in a minority government. They will certainly have an impact, but the numbers just don't work well enough for them to truly say they have the balance of power. So what sayeth you on that?